paxahmedicana

5th July 2009

Video with 1 note

Iranians shouting ‘God is Great’ from their roofs in defiance of a government that stole their election.  The same was done during the 1979 Iranian revolution in support of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the father of the modern Iranian political state.

There is hope in Iran.

The most influential clerical group in Iran - the Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qum - released a statement today calling the recent presidential elections illegitimate, thereby placing the religious authority in Iran in direct odds with supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. You can read the statement here if your Farsi is any good.

It’s difficult to gauge the impact this will have on the government’s ability to manipulate the crisis to bludgeon its enemies.  Until this statement, it certainly seemed they would have a free hand in squelching dissent, be it violently or false trial/imprisonment.   As the NYTimes article quotes:

“This crack in the clerical establishment and the fact they are siding with the people and Moussavi in my view is the most historic crack in the 30 years of the Islamic republic,” said Abbas Milani, director of the Iranian Studies Program at Stanford University. “Remember they are going against an election verified and sanctified by Khamenei.”

Teheran Broadcast via the now banned Rooyce.com reports on what this may potentially mean:

The source also claimed that half of the Assembly of Experts were supporting the idea of declaring a “leadership counsel” (instead of a one person leadership). He said, “the brief summary of these meetings is that at this time the most reasonable solution is the resignation of President Ahmadinejad,” and added, “the Supreme Leader is the spiritual father to all the people and not solely to a special group; however, it seems that Ayatollah Khamenei has chosen to be the latter.” The source deferred to answer whether the Assembly will soon hold a special session in Qom.

In other words, Khamenei needs to watch his back.  He may be where the buck stops now, but his grip on power is tenuous. Something to watch in the coming days is what actions, if any, the religious council in Qom will take against Khamenei, if they dare. The council does have the power to sack Khamenei should they deem it in the interests of Iran.  Qom (pop. 1.5 mil.) is the religious and spiritual epicenter in Iran that essentially canonized Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the father of the revolution, and whose leaders Ahmedenijad has courted. The clerical establishment there is not monolithic and is comprised of every shade of liberal and conservative, which gives their unified statement all the more force.

Robin Wright provides useful intel on the beef between Khamenei and the religious power center in Qom over his designation as the all “supreme” head of the Iranian state. Not everyone in Qom is too pleased with the increasing power concentrated in his role and this just may be the political crisis to wrest control away from Khamenei and anyone who potentially may follow him (Rafsanjani?). However, the all powerful Revolutionary Guards operate at the behest of Khamenei - as they already have to violently suppress protesters - so any move against Khamenei risks political fragmentation of the current power structure in Iran or even the Revolutionary Guards itself.

What is certain: Ahmedenijad and Khamenei enjoy less political legitimacy than at any point since the disputed election.  And their plan to manage the election crisis will not be effectuated by sweeping the issue under the rug and flipping the script on Mousavi and pro-democracy supporters.  What is to be seen is whether Khamenei will challenge the very source of his legitimacy in Qom that views the election as a farce, or compromise his and/or Ahmedenijad’s stranglehold on political power in Iran.